Migration and Proximity Preference in Fertility Decision

Abstract

This paper examines the role of spatial distance from migrants' hometowns in shaping fertility and mobility outcomes. Using U.S. survey data, I demonstrate that the likelihood of having children declines with increasing distance from one’s place of origin, suggesting a “proximity preference” in fertility behavior. This preference appears driven by the reduced access to familial support and increased insecurity faced by long-distance migrants, factors that may discourage childbearing. To quantify the impact of this preference on fertility and mobility, I develop a spatial equilibrium model with endogenous fertility decisions. Counterfactual experiments reveal that proximity preference exerts a substantial influence on both mobility and fertility choices, with skilled workers exhibiting a more pronounced proximity preference in fertility limiting their fertility and mobility outcomes. Additionally, my analysis estimates that changes in migration patterns account for approximately 5% of the decline in fertility rates observed since 2000.